I just want to ask if you have seen this pattern. Mid 2008 was considered a global crises and panic where banks in US and the world stock market crash. Upon studying from the charts how things unfold I notice that During normal period the markets where uncorrelated in their behavior, but when a crises affected the world and every market, every market was trending sharply in one direction, the difference between markets are only magnitude and direction but it was moving somewhere. The same thing happen with the Euro, in the beginning of 2010 every Euro pair was trending sharply in one direction, well before the news came out I believe.
Therefore, do you think a move that is caused by either a world or country crises can be predicted very early on in the initial stage of the trend if associated markets move sharply? If so a system designed for a crash or a trend can be smartly placed at the right time to avoid crazy whipsaws.
Re: Prediction issue
In hindsight -from past market behavior- I am able to see what you are describing. I agree, it is imperative to be able to trade according to the market; trending and non-trending.
The correlation in a crisis can vary. For example in Mid 2008 the USD and JPY were the only two pairs that appreciated. This was new behavior for the JPY to appreciate and become a flight to safety.
During the next crisis (and there will be a next) that last correlation may not exist. Maybe gold will not be viewed as a safe haven. We just don’t know.
Since the conquer builds into these occurances during all market crisis it has you on the right side of the market on all pairs -which are correlated, for example all Yen pairs are trending together- and building into winning positions on big moves. The performance is remarkable.
The question remains, how do you know when you are in a trending market and not.
The conquer trading system is setup to take small frequent losses in periods where the market are contracting. This provides for a manageable draw down of less than 9% which because of the system internals (risk/reward ratio’s and position sizing) the system is able to return to profit within just a couple of 8 hour signal periods. If there were a way to know when the choppy period was going to be so that the system could be adjusted for trending and non-trending periods is the holy grail.
The ATR’s when over a certain price should do exactly that. What is the correct price. For the EUR/USD perhaps over 170. For the GBP/JPY 200 pips.
Forex Auto Trade Script
These scripts were written by Bill for opening 3 orders.
Be aware, these are not EA, but simply to ease the process of opening the 3 orders, and calculating stops and take profits.
It opens 3 pending orders, per the rules of the system.
Beta testing: Bill has a 5 digit broker, and has tested it with them and it works. It would bed appreciated if you have a 4 digit broker, testing it with them to make sure it opens the correct size lots and prices.
These need to be tested with a few brokers to make sure his calculations are correct – accounting for differences in 4 and 5 digit brokers. It should also work with mini/micro account brokers that use integers for lots (ie. his broker uses .1 for a 10k lot, but some brokers use 1 for a 10k lot, so a full lot would be 10 mini lots). I don’t have access to a broker like that, so this need to be tested before distributing.
Who is an ideal candidate for beta testing?
From my experience it takes someone about six months before they have traded through various market cycles (trending, sideways & choppy) to have enough time to understand the system and confidence in it to trust it.
If you do not have that much time with the system but still believe you will be a good candidate then send me an email explaining.
If you do fit that criteria, have a good understanding of the system and trade with a MT4 broker go ahead and send me an email for the scripts.
Thread for following up with comments and feedback, MT4 Auto Trade Scripts.
Beta Testing Ready
Forex Performance
The main reason for this post is to jot down some notes that we will have for later reference as you will see why toward the end of these thoughts.
A continuation of the past stats to improve performance post these are some additional thoughts with a solution that esmarting believes in.
What I think, but cannot prove, is that in ranging markets, which is most of the time, these adjustments could protect/benefit us a bit more.
Currently the Conquer trading system like any solid trend following systems make say 80% of our profits on 20% of our trades (trends) and the thought presented is that trading ranging markets could be more profitable.
More specificly according to the past data, there are some scenarios which could improve overall performance by more than 10% from the conquer’s historic performance.
Knowing ranging markets can be quite choppy and directionless here is the jest of what is being presented with some modifications, not when or when or what to enter, but when to took profit, modifying orders’ order, and targets.
Wisdom: one never knows when a trend will begin, thus we need to follow a trend system’s signals thru the ranging period and plan for drawdown – my 2 cents
Best scenario would be, according to this: same stop @0,33 ATR, BE @0,5 locking 10 pips. There everything remains intact with the current system.
Modifications are:
- order 1 tp@ 0,66ATR locking 0,22atr
- order 2 tp@ 1,32 atr locking 0,64atr
- order 3 tp@ 2,64atr
- orders would be: 1: 0,4% ; 2: 0,8%; 3: 1,2%
The frequency of hitting more tp would be greater and of course hitting first take profits more times, would help us in ranging markets. These scnerios consider the frequency that conquer currently hits take profits. These proposals/ideas been not been backtested/forward tested. According to this scenario, all 6 scenarios perform better that current settings for conquer, and 2 of them perform better by more than 10%.
The question then becomes isn’t past data being taken and then fitting in a set of criteria to that past data so it works or curve fitting. All computer programmers do this in trying to develop a trading system and this always fails when forward tested. Past performance data is taken curve fitting criteria to past data so that it works better. This is called curve fitting. This is so common with all computer programmers trying to develop a trading system, and this always fails when then forward tested.
I is a possibiliy of course, , but what esmarting is seeing from past performance is that half of our profits come from stopouts and half from targets hit. There seems to be merit but then I caution myself of falling into the same trap as all who try to develop systems through curve fitting. Each and everyone of them thinks they have something and we are talking about some pretty smart people who excel in math. They are not traders though and from curve fitting to past data when forward tested over and over again these systems fail.
This would be easy enough to backtest once the EA is finished since most of the system is the same (only changing a couple of variables) but I am sure it would backtest well since it was created through looking at our past performance. There is only one way to truly tell if there is something here that can truly help us and that is through forward testing. Itneeds to be forward tested for at least four months to know if you should continue or not, maybe with the EA on a demo account would be perfect.
The purpose of this post was mainly to have these thoughts written out so when the EA is complete this can be tested as well since the parameters or the core of the system is the same it will be easy enough to do. By the way, the auto script is ready and I will be writing that up on a thread and announcing it shortly.
Forex System Improvements
2010 Performance
Forex Trading
The first half of 2010 has closed out with an enormous gains of 59,273 pips which is averaging almost 10,000 pips a month! Subtracting the month of May which lead to an extraordinary 31,785 pip gain we are still averaging 5,000 pips a month which is just awesome.
More good things to come in the second half of 2010, especially in light of the global economic situation shaping up. Bring on the volatility!
Metatrader Auto Script
Next week we will begin beta testing with select member of the group a script for Metatrader that automatically sets all pending orders and take profits. This is not an expert advisor that is completely hands off since you will still need to manually adjust the stop loss levels when locking in profits. That aspect is good since it will help you still keep a feel for the system allowing you to continue to grow as a trader but make it all much easier for you.
The EA for complete auto trading is also being worked on and will be available sometime in the coming months once that is complete.
I will open up a new thread next in the forum (and include a link in the member area) for the auto script.
Have a good weekend everyone and all those in the USA enjoy your holiday!
Downfall of the Euro
Fiat Currency
We are on the precipice, at the beginning of a sea change in the currency markets, in my opinion. Like Jordan, I have entered several trades recently that initially looked quite promising, only to have the market suddenly whip back counter trend and stop me out for a loss. But there’s something going on here besides mere volatility. What I think we’re seeing is not simply the usual sort of “range bound” markets peppered with sporadic volatility, but more so a deep and widespread uncertainty. Traders are looking at an entire world of fiat currency – paper money with nothing behind it but insurmountable debt, and the question has shifted more from “Which currency has the best value?” to “Which one is the least worthless of the bunch?”. And analysts – myself among them – are having difficulty answering that question. Thus we see things like a steady downtrend suddenly interrupted by a quick, sizable rally that stops out any reasonable scalper or swing trader…only to then see the rally fizzle out, and the market turn back around. As a trader, it can be frustrating at times.
However, I believe there’s good news on the horizon: When the market finally makes it choices as to which currencies it believes in, and which it’s lost faith in, I think the markets, again driven by a sense of fearful uncertainty, will feverishly pursue their chosen directions, scared to death of being wrong and determined therefore to prove themselves right, which means that at that point we should see marked, sustained trends that will cover a lot of ground. When this occurs (and I think it may have already begun, or won’t be much longer – markets do not like uncertainty), a system like Jordan’s “Conquer” should prove an excellent method of scooping up most of the available cash on the table for the foreseeable future.
One of the signs I see of these decisions being made is the recent downfall of the Euro versus the Pound. After a monster rally from 2007 through all of 2008 (a longer uptrend goes all the way back to 2001) that took the Euro almost all the way to par with the Pound, the Euro has been in a downtrend vs. the Pound. But it’s been a rather slow and steady downtrend, that is until a couple of months ago when, viewed on the weekly or monthly charts, it pretty much fell off a cliff from around the .8700 level, and is now threatening to test the .7900 – .8000 level where it traded throughout most of 2008. Below that, the next likely stopping point is way down around the .6800 – .7000 level. Anyway, in short, I see this recent ability of the Pound to rally strongly while the Euro falls sharply as one of the possible decisions being made by the market – a loss of faith in the long-term health of the Euro, and an embracing of the more traditional currency, the Pound. In any event, there seems to be a moving away from Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd trading more or less tandem, that is, going either up or down mostly together. This is just one of the market signs that lead me to believe we’re in the midst of a fundamental re-evaluation of which currencies are the stronger and which are weaker. And again my view is that once the markets makes it choices, it will vigorously pursue them – which should mean long, sustained trends, with only minimal retracement moves. Of course there will be the occasional counter trend shakeout – there always is – but still and all, I believe that swing traders will be able to ride overall trends a bit more smoothly and easily than has been the case recently anyway.
In closing, let me say that while I trade based on my own systems, I also do follow Jordan’s “Conquer” trades, because they’re designed to do precisely what every great trading system should – keep losses small when you’re wrong, and make big money when you’re right. And that’s really all that’s required to succeed as a trader. “Just don’t let yourself get killed – protect your capital, until you can hit a home run and make a fortune, large or small.” It really is that simple when you get down to it.
Best wishes, happy trading, God’s blessings always,
Jack Maverick
Hi All,
As promised this is the final warning that the price for the Conquer trading system is now going up. This is your last chance to receive access to the system and be grandfathered into the low rate of $57/month.
Once the price is raised you will no longer have access to the system at this price even through this special notice. Please do not email asking for an exception as that is not possible, this is your last opportunity now.
Get it now before its price goes up to $147/month.
“Get A Forex Trading System Capable Of Triple Digit Returns That Is Averaging Hundreds Of Pips Weekly
CHEERS!
Jordan Lindsey
