US vs China Economics; Deficits vs Reserves

[22:15:38] jordan: these people are crazy. to think that the economy will recover by late next year is just not realistic. people will be spending less and less and saving more and more. we have borrowed all of this money but not a cent of it has gone to improving our infrastructure or creating manufactured good we could sell.
[22:22:01] jordan: we are going to mirror japans economy of the last decade of low interest rates, low to no growth or decline and in and out of recession over and over again (if we are lucky). nothing has changed expect we have added more and more liquidity though these bailouts (700b) and increased military spending (540b)
[23:08:19] bcho018: well hopefully China will float their Yuan
[23:11:17] jordan: what will happen if they do? their exports will cost more?
[23:13:09] bcho018: Just thought it will be an interesting currency to trade.
[23:14:25] jordan: ahhhh! this is true, you can w/ oanda but no liquid enough right now
[23:14:29] bcho018: China seem to be more assertive now telling US not to complain about them keeping their currency the way it is
[23:15:14] jordan: because they own so much of the US debt they can tell what the US to do now, since the US needs to them to buy more debt in the future
[23:17:29] bcho018: that's really sad
[23:29:00] dug: what country isn't in debt?
[23:29:13] dug: everyone owes other ppl money, it's just a big cycle
[23:29:48] jordan: china doesn't owe anyone money, they have a 2 trillion surplus
[23:30:05] bcho018: So they answer to no one
[23:30:31] jordan: japan isn't in debt, they own a huge chunk of ours. All the countries in the middle east have a huge surplus as does Russia
[23:30:58] jordan: it is the US, UK, some of Europe and AUS who have debt
[23:31:33] bcho018: all because of a flawed monetary system

Countries by current account balance

[23:34:00] bcho018: I don't think China is interested in the fall of the west, I can understand Chinese and I heard from Jia Bao that China can only prosper if the world proper, and they want to lead the world into prosperity
[23:34:15] bcho018: I don't know if its sweet talk but yeah I think its true
[23:35:25] jordan: sure, we are their largest trading partner. of course they want us to succeed but the US will no longer have the reserve currency going forward
[23:38:17] dug: most of the big developed countries owe money...that's how it is
[23:38:25] dug: no one cares about angola
[23:39:46] jordan: dunno looks like most of the G8 are on the green side
[23:40:22] jordan: it is US vs China and they lead in reserves and we lead in deficits.
[23:41:37] bcho018: what a contrast.....
[23:44:33] bcho018: The only time I can see China going to war is to get their land back and for resources though I think the latter is unlikely since they like diplomacy

 

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I can't see Americans becoming suddenly a nation of savers.

[21:42:17] jkapf: I'm not so sure if I agree on you economic outlook of the US (comparing to Japan). Japan is special... it is also a different mentality.
[21:43:12] jkapf: in rough times, as it started 15 years ago, wallets are closed, Japanese are more used to save, which obviously restricts consumption.
[21:43:41] jkapf: I can't see Americans becoming suddenly a nation of savers...
[21:45:02] jkapf: ... once the low interest creates again a clima of chea money, it will start again, but maybe not that crazy consumption, "buy now, pay later" as during the last 10 years.
[21:45:53] jkapf: "buy now, pay later" turned into ", pay never"...
[21:46:36] jordan: I see, it is in american culture to spend spend spend

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